On the iPhone, Verizon and all these "January release" rumors

I know I have already talked about this in the past on Facebook, but the rumor mill REALLY has been speeding up now with post after post talking about the iPhone coming to Verizon in January.  Even my own SA boss, who doesnt follow this kind of news, emailed me to ask me if I was getting the new iPhone in January. I had to politely respond to her that it wasnt going to happen, but she just wasnt convinced.

So allow me to lay it out for you here, everything I know about the Verizon/iPhone rumors, including the most recent ones to pop up just today. And Ill make a point to quote what the experts are saying (which is what Ive been saying all along).

Ok, to start, everyone knows a couple of things. First, the Apple iPhone is wildly successful. Second, the iPhone is locked to AT&T in USA, but in other countries you can choose what carrier you get your iPhone on. Lastly, AT&T and Verizon are the two core wireless companies in the USA, so everyone assumes that the iPhone will eventually come to Verizon.

And way back in 2006, Apple approached Verizon FIRST to carry its iPhone on its network, and Verizon said no.  Apple wanted complete control over its software, while Verizon was too locked into its VZApps to let those go. So Apple and Verizon failed to reach a deal, and Apple when to AT&T, and the rest is history.

Source: Engadget

Until 2007, when AT&T started having troubles with so many iPhones on its network. Thats when, purportedly, Apple started rethinking sticking with AT&T, and seriously considered moving to Verizon alltogether.  Course, that would have meant creating a CDMA iPhone, which didnt exist at the time.  And a whole bunch of other problems too. If you are really interested, you can read the whole she-bang here. Im skipping over this part of the backstory cuz really, what does it matter? It didnt happen, and the main reason Apple stayed with AT&T anyways still had to do with one thing: the 5 year exclusivity contract between the two companies. And if Apple had bailed, it wouldnt have been pretty.

Lets skip forward to today, and all these rumors about the now apparently existent CDMA iPhone, and why people keep saying that this is the signal that the iPhone is coming to Verizon is January.

First of all, most of you, like my father on repeat occasions, needs a quick lesson in the ABC jumbo of wireless frequencies, and what all this CDMA GSM LTE 4G stuff means.

Lets start with GSM. GSM is the frequency used by most of the world for cell phone networks. Its vastly popular, and wide spread. In the USA, companies like T-Mobile and AT&T use GSM frequencies, complete with SIM cards that is the standard for GSM of tracking who is who is a cell phone. Your number is tied to your SIM card, not your phone. So if you pop out your SIM card and put it in another phone, boom there ya go. So when Apple wanted to launch the iPhone internationally, it was very easy to do so because the rest of the world already ran on GSM frequencies.

CDMA is an extremely unpopular wireless frequency used mainly in two places.  The first is in USA with Verizon and Sprint, and the second is in China, where CDMA is heavily used.  Everywhere else, CDMA frequencies are pretty scarce. So if Apple wanted to bring the iPhone to Verizon or Sprint or China, then it would need to re-tweak the iPhone with some new hardware to read CDMA frequencies. As of right now, no CDMA version of the iPhone is in existence.

Which is where all these rumors come in. Everyone has been hearing that Apple is about ready to enter production of their CDMA iPhone. And to everyone in America, this gives instant hope that Apple is about ready to give Verizon the iPhone.

Here are some of the reasons they think this:

1) Apple has a Verizon CDMA tour installed on their home campus in Cupertino, which was installed for testing of CDMA devices.
2) Apple has long been in talks with Verizon, and Apple AND Verizon both have a lot to gain by releasing an iPhone for Verizon.

So of course, everyone thinks the Apple making CDMA iPhones means that Verizon will be getting it in January when the CDMA version is released.

Well, I dont think so. And it all revolves around one core element. 4G and LTE.

Many of you know what 3G is. Its what wireless companies shove down our throats as we sit and watch TV, telling how us fast their 3G network is.

And you probably know what 4G is too, thanks to Sprint shoving its new 4G network down our throats as well.  And yes, 4G is about 10 times faster than 3G. Once 4G is nation-wide, you will LITERALLY have ethernet connection speeds wirelessly, anywhere you are. Really. And Sprint decided to partner with ClearWire, a WiMAX-frequency company, to start delivering 4G to its mobile wireless customers.  And so Sprint took off as the first 4G deployer.

But Verizon (and all the other wireless companies) also have plans for 4G.  Verizon is actually going to be next to bring the 4G, in the form of whats called LTE. LTE is also going to have blistering fast speeds, but will NOT operate on the same frequencies as WiMAX.

So yes, just like GSM and CDMA both provided 3G speeds, but on different frequencies, LTE and WiMAX will provide 4G speeds, but also on different frequencies.

OK. HERES WHERE IT ALL COMES TOGETHER.

AT&T has also announced that it will start building its 4G network as well, and has decided to use LTE as well as its frequency of choice for 4G.

THIS MEANS - In a few short years time, Verizon and AT&T will no longer be on different frequencies. They will be on the SAME frequency.  Meaning that once the iPhone jumps to 4G and is LTE capable, it will be SIMPLE to pop out an AT&T sim card and pop in a Verizon sim card.

So yes, Verizon WILL get the iPhone, but not yet. And why?

Verizon is set to launch its 4G network in January (data only right now). LTE is NOWHERE near ready to be put in cell phones yet.

Why would Verizon launch a CDMA only iPhone in January, a HUGE profile device, when its trying to get people to pay attention to its new LTE-4G network?

And people also forget, China is also on CDMA frequencies. Dont you think its possible that China would be the one getting all these orders?

After all is said and done, it just doesnt make logical sense for Apple to make a CDMA iPhone for Verizon when Verizon will be ditching CDMA alltogether quite soon. And it doesnt make sense for Verizon to want the iPhone now when its taking the world by storm with Android right now, AND its LTE network is launching in January.

Sorry folks. No one wants this more than me, but it just aint happening. Maybe one day in January, we will all be holding Big-Red's iPhone. But it wont be this January.

Well, Basically: A CDMA iPhone is probably coming in January, but even if it is, it wont be for Verizon.